Threat Assessment2026-07-18

Current Snapshot — 18.07.2026 05:00

Ukraine - Intensification of combined UAV and ballistic strikes on Kharkiv region (directions Zolochiv, Mala Rohan, Kharkiv itself). Launches from Bryansk region and loitering drones recorded; an explosion noted outside the city. - Large-scale drone attack on occupied Crimea (Hvardiiske, Sevastopol, Feodosia, Kerch). Targets likely aviation facilities; heightened tension reported in Kerch.

**Ukraine**

- Intensification of combined UAV and ballistic strikes on Kharkiv region (directions Zolochiv, Mala Rohan, Kharkiv itself). Launches from Bryansk region and loitering drones recorded; an explosion noted outside the city. - Large-scale drone attack on occupied Crimea (Hvardiiske, Sevastopol, Feodosia, Kerch). Targets likely aviation facilities; heightened tension reported in Kerch. - Internal crisis: mass protests in Kyiv, Odesa, Lviv, and other cities against the dismissal of Mykhailo Fedorov and appointment of Syrskyi. Some military personnel openly express discontent. - According to Estonian intelligence, strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have already caused fuel shortages in Russia and increased frontline losses, intensifying pressure on Russian society.

**Russia**

- The ongoing fuel crisis and rising frontline losses force Russian authorities to tighten control over society to suppress discontent. - Two Russian citizens detained in Istanbul for reading the Bible in Hagia Sophia have been deported to Russia. - The information environment around Ukraine (protests, Fedorov's dismissal) is actively used by Russian media as an element of information pressure.

**Europe**

- Record heatwave in France led to nearly 3,000 excess deaths in a week in the Île-de-France region. - Trump threatens Canada with new tariffs over wildfires and smoke affecting US cities; Canadian side emphasizes shared climate responsibility. - The incident with Russians in Hagia Sophia highlights growing religious-political tension in Turkey.

**Global**

- The US strikes Iran for the seventh consecutive night; explosions recorded near the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, both sides report targeted attacks on civilian infrastructure (bridges, energy, desalination plants). - Zelenskyy announces intention to open intelligence archives on the Volyn massacre — a step aimed at normalizing relations with Poland. - Protests in Ukraine against the change of defense minister continue to spread, causing concern among military personnel.